Thursday, September 25, 2014

Truth and Statistics

One of the two top-of-page-1 stories in today's Killeen Daily Herald is a report of a study done by a social media site, "WalletHub", that ranks Killeen as the 18th fastest-growing cities in the United States during the period 2008-2012.  The article has a little OMG vibe (that's OK: it's what local newspapers do), but it tries to put the report in context (Don Crutchfield, chairman of the Chamber of Commerce is quoted saying there's good growth and not-so-good growth).  The notable omission is that there is no discussion of the methodology involved in the study.

Bad news:  WaletHub doesn't disclose much information about its methodology.  We aren't told, for example, how growth is measured; whether cities are ranked with cities of similar sizes (the article seems to suggest so, but Austin is in the same list as Killeen).  Webhub does ckaim that 516 cities were surveyed, but nowhere does it appear that Killeen was compared to all 516, or, if so, how.

It probably doesn't matter much whether Killeen is #18 of 100 or of 516 in growth.  We know the population is inreasing rapidly.  Killeen already has more citizens thatn Waco.  What might be of interest is whether Killeen is #97 in full-time job increases out of 100 or some larger number.

I don't know enough about WalletHub to judge their ability to do this kind of study. They may be expert statisticians, or know some.  But the vagueness of what they've put on their web site, and what has been reported about it, makes me skeptical that we should (for example) plaster this information over Killeen promotional material without further vetting.

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